Impact of Immigration Policies on the U.S. Labor Force
As Americans gather to commemorate Labor Day, new federal statistics reveal the significant effects of President Trump’s immigration policies on the U.S. workforce. Preliminary data from the Census Bureau, analyzed by the Pew Research Center, shows a decline of 1.2 million immigrant workers in the U.S. from January to the end of July. This total encompasses both undocumented individuals and legal residents.
Reduced Immigration and Its Consequences
The reduction in immigrant workers coincides with a decisive slowdown in immigration under Trump’s administration, which began with a campaign promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. Although Trump has stated a focus on deporting “dangerous criminals,” many individuals detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) lack any criminal convictions. Additionally, illegal border crossings have tumbled as a direct result of these policies.
In 2023, the number of undocumented individuals peaked at approximately 14 million, according to Pew estimates. However, this number has likely since decreased, attributed to intensified deportations and a rollback of protections under the current administration, as noted in the Pew Research Center report.
Projected Trends in Immigration
According to an August 28 report from Oxford Economics, the slowdown in immigration is expected to persist throughout Trump’s presidency, with net immigration anticipated to fall to an annualized rate of 500,000 by the end of this year and remain at that level until 2028.
The Immigrant Workforce’s Role
Immigrants constitute nearly 20% of the U.S. labor force, with substantial proportions in specific industries. Pew senior researcher Stephanie Kramer points out that 45% of workers in farming, fishing, and forestry are immigrants, alongside 30% of construction workers and 24% of service workers.
Kramer stated, “It’s unclear how much of the decline we’ve seen since January is due to voluntary departures to pursue other opportunities or avoid deportation, removals, underreporting or other technical issues. However, we don’t believe that the preliminary numbers indicating net-negative migration are so far off that the decline isn’t real.”
This decrease, while representing a minor fraction of the total U.S. labor force of over 171 million, could have significant ramifications for states and sectors more reliant on immigrant labor.
Consequences for Labor Market Dynamics
With the majority of immigrants falling within the prime working age of 25 to 54, their contributions are essential in addressing labor shortages. Oxford Economics emphasizes the significance of this demographic, stating, “This is critical to ease shortages in regional labor markets, especially as U.S. labor mobility has steadily declined since the 1980s.”
However, states with substantial populations of undocumented immigrants, such as Louisiana, Florida, and New York, are experiencing some of the most noticeable declines in unauthorized migration.
Experts warn that the diminishing participation of immigrants in the labor force could exacerbate existing pressures on the job market, which has already shown signs of strain as hiring slows down. The average increase in monthly payrolls from May to July was a mere 35,000, a stark contrast to the earlier average of 123,000.
Labor Market Observations
Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, remarked, “The influx across the border from what we can tell is essentially stopped, and that’s where we were getting millions and millions of migrants over the last four years. That has had a huge impact on the ability to create jobs.” Historically, immigrants have been responsible for at least 50% of the job growth in the U.S., underscoring their critical role in the economy.
Further, Oxford Economics suggests that the decline in unauthorized immigration could skew perceptions of labor market tightness by increasing the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, complicating the understanding of current labor trends.
Effects of Enforcement on Agriculture and Construction
In McAllen, Texas—bordering Mexico—agricultural sectors are bracing for potential workforce shortages as crop harvesting approaches. Elizabeth Rodriguez, director of farmworker advocacy for the National Farmworker Ministry, expressed concern about the availability of labor for essential tasks, stating, “In May, during the peak of our watermelon and cantaloupe season, it delayed it. A lot of crops did go to waste.”
In California’s Ventura County, Lisa Tate manages a family business that relies on day laborers for fruit and coffee cultivation. She noted a drop in workforce size owing to fears of ICE raids that have become common in the area. “Dozens of area farmworkers were arrested late this spring,” she remarked.
Lidia, a farmworker articulating her fears through an interpreter, shared her anxiety about being deported, saying, “I don’t know if I’ll be able to bring my kids. I’m also very concerned I’d have to start from zero. My whole life has been in the United States.”
Construction Employment Decline
Data from the Associated General Contractors of America indicates falling construction employment across nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the greatest losses occurring in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California, and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area. Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist, noted, “But contractors report they would hire more people if only they could find more qualified and willing workers and tougher immigration enforcement wasn’t disrupting labor supplies.”
The potential for escalating immigration enforcement funding is flagged by Oxford report authors, who caution that this could result in a sustained higher rate of deportations.
Healthcare Sector at Risk
Kramer warns of broader implications on healthcare, highlighting that immigrants constitute roughly 43% of home health care aides. Arnulfo De La Cruz, president of SEIU 2015, noted that approximately half of long-term care workers within the union in California are immigrants. He questioned, “What’s going to happen when millions of Americans can no longer find a home care provider? What happens when immigrants aren’t in the field to pick our crops? Who’s going to staff our hospitals and nursing homes?”
